markets

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=13.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=8.50%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=5.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=12.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=19.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=4.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?': YES=99.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?': YES=49.90%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Trump out as President before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a new, full-length Stargate series premiere in 2023?': YES=2.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get new Stargate before 2025?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will President Trump speak negatively about Sam Altman by the end of February 2025?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?': YES=4.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will "Quotes from the Stargate press conference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?': YES=4.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Stargate Argentina built before 2028?': YES=36.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Stargate be the US version of the Chinese Social Credit System (社会信用体系) by the end of 2028?': YES=7.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Stargate Project to add a new major technology partner by EOY?': YES=60.60%

Manifold consensus on 'Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?': YES=20.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a new live-action Stargate movie/TV-series start filming before Stargate invests $500B in AI?': YES=64.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Chinese government announce a equivalent AI project to Stargate in 2025': YES=12.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Stargate project work?': YES=56.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?': YES=29.42%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?': YES=10.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?': YES=7.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?': YES=39.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030?': YES=88.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?': YES=27.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?': YES=16.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will data center technicians still be necessary in 2027?': YES=93.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be an AI data center powered by new nuclear power by 2030?': YES=74.28%