markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.38%

Polymarket top market 'The Memphis Classic: Yexin Ma vs Caty McNally': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Once Upon A Team (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Season': YES=95.70%

Polymarket top market 'Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs ROSSMANN Centaurs - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.10%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?': YES=14.10%

Polymarket top market 'T20 Lanka Premier League: Jaffna Kings vs Kandy Royals': YES=96.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?': YES=38.20%

Polymarket top market 'Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ilves Tampere win on 2026-07-30?': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'FC Midtjylland vs. Beşiktaş JK: Team to Advance': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'The Memphis Classic: Kristina Liutova vs Maya Joint': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs ROSSMANN Centaurs - Game 1 Winner': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 3.5': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: PCIFIC vs BoostGate Esports - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=4.80%

Polymarket top market 'New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?': YES=93.00%

Polymarket top market 'Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt': YES=91.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: PCIFIC vs BoostGate Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%