markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.03%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?': YES=99.70%

Polymarket top market '2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-07-31?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 15?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?': YES=30.50%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: NRG Esports vs Dorado Gaming - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs BESTIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffs': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-07-31?': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 1?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?': YES=0.20%