markets

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=25.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=40.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2038?': YES=72.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2037?': YES=71.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=35.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=14.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=78.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2048?': YES=83.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2046?': YES=81.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2043?': YES=77.56%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2047?': YES=82.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2042?': YES=75.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2045?': YES=80.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2036?': YES=63.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=35.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2041?': YES=78.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2040?': YES=77.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2039?': YES=76.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2038?': YES=74.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2037?': YES=72.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=63.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=38.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=36.60%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=69.26%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?': YES=52.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Microsoft buy OpenAI?': YES=19.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=70.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?': YES=33.65%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030': YES=30.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?': YES=3.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?': YES=97.77%