markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=68.13%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=66.05%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August?': YES=99.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=2.70%

Polymarket top market 'ITF Astana: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Grigory Shebekin': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?': YES=95.80%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 2?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Liberec: Jan Kumstat vs Gonzalo Bueno': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?': YES=81.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in August?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by August 31?': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 4?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=2.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?': YES=4.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?': YES=6.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=58.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?': YES=25.20%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: LNG Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by September 30?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=45.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2?': YES=90.00%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: VARREL vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega': YES=42.00%