markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=76.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 6?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=26.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Los Angeles FC vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?': YES=16.00%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=89.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 6?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?': YES=7.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins': YES=66.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 6?': YES=5.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?': YES=93.00%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=22.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=89.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?': YES=81.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=6.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-08-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-08-05?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 6?': YES=99.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 6?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: LGD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group': YES=68.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket