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Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
- 2026-08-06Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=62.98%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Ei Nerd Esports vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=29.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 182.5': YES=40.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 6?': YES=99.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5': YES=43.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=85.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: LGD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=90.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?': YES=17.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: NRG Esports vs Cupid Esports - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
NRGmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?': YES=93.00%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-08-05?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=88.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=6.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 6?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=26.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Blue Otter vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Grêmio FBPA vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Grêmio FBPA vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 6?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Regular Season': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will CD La Equidad Seguros win on 2026-08-05?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket