markets

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=53.51%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=43.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=37.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=48.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2040?': YES=72.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=30.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026?': YES=68.34%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI deploys ads in ChatGPT web or mobile app by end of 2026': YES=97.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?': YES=93.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on '7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.': YES=8.60%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=27.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a new line of models by the end of the year?': YES=90.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=6.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will "OpenAI Shares Some Alignment Problems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?': YES=11.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the OpenAI hardware device be a portable puck that sees, speaks, and moves?': YES=48.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?': YES=24.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?': YES=66.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?': YES=23.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=77.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=95.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?': YES=19.50%