markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?': YES=61.30%
GOOGLmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5': YES=85.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha': YES=81.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Vendula Valdmannova': YES=76.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Sangal (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 16': YES=68.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-072026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Polymarket top market '2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi': YES=63.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-07Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=4.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Shifters vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season': YES=38.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=98.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: WE (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)': YES=5.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5)': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on August 7?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=10.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-07Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?': YES=63.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez': YES=78.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-07Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=87.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-07Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-08-07?
Polymarket top market 'Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-08-07?': YES=96.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=87.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Butterfly (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?': YES=99.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Group Stage': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 7?': YES=93.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-07Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-07Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 6
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 6': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-07Iran leadership change by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by August 31?': YES=5.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=34.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-07Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-08-07?
Polymarket top market 'Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-08-07?': YES=95.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-07Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-08-07?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket