markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Ethereum Up or Down on August 8?
Polymarket top market 'Ethereum Up or Down on August 8?': YES=35.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=46.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-08Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 3-9?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 3-9?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'ITF Astana: Shintaro Imai vs Shunsuke Mitsui': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 15?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will Rodri join Barcelona?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri join Barcelona?': YES=90.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?': YES=90.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 3-9?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 3-9?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=94.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=67.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?': YES=95.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner': YES=59.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 8?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=94.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=85.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)': YES=56.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Kreazion (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 1': YES=50.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 16': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=75.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: ECHO vs OG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 9': YES=49.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=92.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs LNG Esports (+1.5)': YES=51.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 8?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket