markets

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.83%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 9?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Trace Esports vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 9?': YES=95.20%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?': YES=84.50%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elena Rybakina': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 3-9?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?': YES=27.70%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 9?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NRG vs Phantom (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-09?': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-09?': YES=43.90%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will FC Groningen win on 2026-08-09?': YES=43.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO5) - LCP Group Stage': YES=90.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-08-09?': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs BIG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 9?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 1 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will FC Inter Turku win on 2026-08-09?': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: ECHO vs GenOne (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha': YES=63.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Atletico Madrid win on 2026-08-09?': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?': YES=77.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-08-09?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 9?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 9?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 3-9?': YES=0.10%