markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=65.73%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.83%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?': YES=88.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs BIG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Alexandra Eala vs Belinda Bencic': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=91.00%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha': YES=72.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?': YES=3.30%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?': YES=77.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 9?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 9?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-08-08?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana': YES=88.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: ECHO vs GenOne (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins': YES=58.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 9?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?': YES=63.10%

Polymarket top market 'ITF Tianjin: Junhan Zhang vs Chenting Zhu': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?': YES=13.00%