markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=65.73%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=67.00%
AAPLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.81%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-10Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs Vitality Academy - Map 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-10Hamburg: Cezar Cretu vs Marvin Moeller
Polymarket top market 'Hamburg: Cezar Cretu vs Marvin Moeller': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils': YES=54.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 10?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'ITF koksijde: Jelle Sels vs Lars Goran Verwerft': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-10Will Djurgardens IF win on 2026-08-10?
Polymarket top market 'Will Djurgardens IF win on 2026-08-10?': YES=57.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-10Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-10Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs Vitality Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Group D
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs Vitality Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Group D': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?': YES=82.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 10?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: TEC Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins': YES=34.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 10?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?': YES=63.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-10Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season': YES=35.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 10?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Mindfreak (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Playoffs': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-10Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Polymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?': YES=59.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=75.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 10?': YES=97.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?': YES=37.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 10?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 10?': YES=3.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier': YES=66.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=80.30%
market:polymarket