markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=47.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=47.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=59.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Polymarket top market 'GKS GieKSa Katowice vs. MH Hapoel Tel Aviv: O/U 2.5': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Todi: Daniel Galan vs Federico Agustin Gomez': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Shark Attack vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Level UP - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Manchester United win on 2026-08-12?': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Robin Montgomery': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?': YES=83.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=5.30%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Shark Attack vs SU Esports - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 13?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will FC København win on 2026-08-12?': YES=92.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Ici Japon Corp. Esport vs TLN Pirates (BO3) - LFL Playoffs': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?': YES=31.30%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Charles Johnson vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Main Card)': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%