markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Onion Team vs eSuba (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Eintracht Frankfurt - Map 2 Winner': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs SAW Youngsters (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #7 Group A
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs SAW Youngsters (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #7 Group A': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-12Brownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto
Polymarket top market 'Brownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto': YES=58.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-12Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-12Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=99.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Darwin Blanch': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=47.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5': YES=54.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=97.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=77.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alina Korneeva vs Alina Charaeva': YES=75.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Brownsburg: Stefan Kozlov vs Aidan Mayo
Polymarket top market 'Brownsburg: Stefan Kozlov vs Aidan Mayo': YES=78.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=74.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha': YES=69.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Eintracht Frankfurt - Map 1 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima': YES=68.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-12Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?': YES=99.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Hamburg: Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Todi: Filippo Romano vs Juan Bautista Torres': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs 3DMAX (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=76.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket