markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI?': YES=13.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=74.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=36.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2040?': YES=72.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=14.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=41.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?': YES=28.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Attention + Diffusion + Search + RL = AGI?': YES=26.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=40.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=63.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=23.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=10.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release its Astra model to the US general public before 2027?': YES=62.83%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=14.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Temperature market 🌡 : OpenAI business is good and aligned with humanity flurishing.': YES=33.60%

Manifold consensus on 'At the end of 2027 will both OpenAI and Anthropic be public companies?': YES=81.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?': YES=39.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.13%

Manifold consensus on 'Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?': YES=48.07%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=12.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?': YES=5.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?': YES=12.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?': YES=89.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=29.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?': YES=96.66%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on '1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.': YES=71.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%