markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=46.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=46.47%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?': YES=36.60%

Polymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=13.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Team Falcons Win The International 2026?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Joblife vs Pcific Esports - Map 2 Winner': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Simona Waltert vs Petra Marcinko': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Katerina Siniakova': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.30%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-08-13?': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?': YES=81.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=97.50%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCT Pacific Play-In': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Washington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Astralis (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Kimberly Birrell': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: The Otter Side vs NORTHERNGRADE ESPORTS - Game 1 Winner': YES=44.00%