markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=45.70%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?': YES=71.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 13?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?': YES=61.80%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Katerina Siniakova': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=92.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Alexander Okonkwo vs Strong Kirchheimer': YES=99.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 13?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs JiJieHao (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Bubliki vs Dominion Goblins (BO3) - LPLOL Group Stage': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 13?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5)': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=99.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 13?': YES=98.40%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=77.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-08-12?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.30%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Cameron Norrie vs Dino Prizmic': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 13?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-08-12?': YES=0.30%