markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=46.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=46.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=39.43%

Polymarket top market 'Games Total: O/U 2.5': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 10-16?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=13.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on August 14?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'DEN vs. ATL: O/U 38.5': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.20%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=13.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 14?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 14?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=23.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 14?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 14?': YES=4.80%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)': YES=59.00%