markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=90.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?': YES=28.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=6.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?': YES=30.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=37.25%

Manifold consensus on 'Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI?': YES=13.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=74.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=43.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=38.30%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=22.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=66.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release its Astra model to the US general public before 2027?': YES=88.31%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?': YES=6.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.13%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=9.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?': YES=65.12%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2028?': YES=84.53%

Manifold consensus on '1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.': YES=72.26%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=9.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?': YES=7.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%