markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=6.98%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.49%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in August?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=93.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on August 15?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Will CA Banfield win on 2026-08-14?
Polymarket top market 'Will CA Banfield win on 2026-08-14?': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-15Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-15Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 15?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 15?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 15?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 15?': YES=99.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Broncos vs. Falcons
Polymarket top market 'Broncos vs. Falcons': YES=97.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=45.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=9.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 330: Eric McConico vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Early Prelims)': YES=26.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=13.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15DEN vs. ATL: O/U 40.5
Polymarket top market 'DEN vs. ATL: O/U 40.5': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-15Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-15LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Last Chance Qualifier
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Last Chance Qualifier': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=42.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=70.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?': YES=90.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-15Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-15Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Polymarket top market 'Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets': YES=58.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter - Game 2 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 15?': YES=97.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-15Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Polymarket top market 'Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays': YES=38.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-15Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-15Dolphins vs. Commanders
Polymarket top market 'Dolphins vs. Commanders': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-15Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket