markets

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=25.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?': YES=66.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AGI insider" class accept the political disempowerment of everyone else?': YES=62.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=73.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=16.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=43.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=57.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2041?': YES=74.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2047?': YES=82.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2043?': YES=77.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2042?': YES=75.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2035?': YES=64.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=56.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2046?': YES=81.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2045?': YES=80.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2048?': YES=84.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=41.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=36.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=22.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=8.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?': YES=16.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026?': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?': YES=7.88%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=11.68%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=7.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=14.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?': YES=54.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis': YES=67.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.30%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%