markets

Manifold consensus on 'Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?': YES=39.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?': YES=73.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2028 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=66.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 12 USD billion?': YES=57.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=66.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=65.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2028 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=66.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 12 USD billion?': YES=57.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 4 USD billion?': YES=65.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=55.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=57.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026': YES=30.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?': YES=87.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2027?': YES=66.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Sam Altman (co)found a GPU chip fab company by 2025?': YES=14.98%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2025 (gpu)': YES=64.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?': YES=82.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=25.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?': YES=51.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?': YES=24.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=31.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=36.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first AGI be a large language model?': YES=63.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?': YES=74.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?': YES=61.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?': YES=36.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?': YES=37.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=41.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)': YES=87.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?': YES=30.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=43.31%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before October 1st 2027?': YES=18.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?': YES=43.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?': YES=21.18%