markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,676 events on 2026-08-17role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data

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2026-08-17Trump out as President before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President before 2027?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Lens win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Polymarket top market 'Will Lens win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 18?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 18?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Polymarket top market 'Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates': YES=52.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Polymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 Men: Artem Alekseychuk vs Tiago Boschmans
Polymarket top market 'ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 Men: Artem Alekseychuk vs Tiago Boschmans': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Polymarket top market 'Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?': YES=6.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Fulham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
Polymarket top market 'Will Fulham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?': YES=11.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 17?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 17?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=29.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17?': YES=19.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=95.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #7 Play-In
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #7 Play-In': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Polymarket top market 'Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=99.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Polymarket top market 'Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17LoL: Bulldog Esports vs LEO (BO3) - NLC Regular Season
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Bulldog Esports vs LEO (BO3) - NLC Regular Season': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 17?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 17?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 17?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 17?': YES=99.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-17LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket