markets

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?': YES=30.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI?': YES=13.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2036?': YES=67.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=55.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=39.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?': YES=66.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=10.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=15.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?': YES=77.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?': YES=85.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?': YES=79.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=62.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?': YES=6.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=6.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?': YES=82.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=66.29%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=11.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=3.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?': YES=66.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis': YES=84.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?': YES=42.35%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2028?': YES=93.58%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?': YES=75.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=4.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?': YES=18.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?': YES=8.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%