markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=23.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=69.87%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=34.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=51.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China buy the H200 from NVIDIA': YES=35.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=39.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=37.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=63.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=5.49%

Manifold consensus on '📈 Will Nvidia report Q2 FY2027 revenue above $92 billion?': YES=89.94%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'US Open, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Polona Hercog': YES=94.30%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Onion Team vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season': YES=48.90%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Shifters vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'US Open, Qualification ATP: Michael Antonius vs Henry Searle': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Sabah FK win on 2026-08-25?': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: K27 vs SPARTA (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Gamespace Mediterranean College Esports vs Spartans EU - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US Open, Qualification ATP: Braden Shick vs Clement Tabur': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Winston-Salem Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Quentin Halys': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 26?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US Open, Qualification WTA: Janae Preston vs Nao Hibino': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Rio Noguchi': YES=71.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=38.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #7 Group Stage': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs QUB (BO3) - United21 Group A': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?': YES=99.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=71.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs ROSSMANN Centaurs - Game 1 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'US Open, Qualification ATP: Henri Squire vs David Jorda Sanchis': YES=68.00%