markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?': YES=25.71%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts': YES=69.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?': YES=67.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=65.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=4.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=16.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=28.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the EU announce new emergency AI regulations or an AGI development pause before May 1, 2026?': YES=13.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=17.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will The New York Times win its copyright infringement suit against OpenAI and Microsoft?': YES=57.92%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI announces an interactive world model by June 1st 2026?': YES=11.44%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026': YES=18.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?': YES=97.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=28.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2026?': YES=95.04%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?': YES=9.00%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=43.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=15.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Who will believe in AGI first, Manifold (Yes) or OpenAI (No)?': YES=22.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon win his case against OpenAI?': YES=51.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026?': YES=16.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an LLM from OpenAI beat a FIDE grandmaster in chess by the end of 2028?': YES=40.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a "Search" feature that replaces ChatGPT's default interface before July 1, 2026?': YES=23.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?': YES=87.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI still own the number 5.3 before May?': YES=92.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?': YES=15.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?': YES=28.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?': YES=58.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will "Critterz" (OpenAI's feature film) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of at least 60%?': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%