markets

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts': YES=68.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?': YES=51.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=8.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=72.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?': YES=29.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=16.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Trump declares AGI before the Pope?': YES=75.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=7.31%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=48.21%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=3.25%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?': YES=27.56%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be listed on Nasdaq by the end of 2026?': YES=18.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?': YES=9.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a competitor to GitHub in 2026?': YES=18.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?': YES=6.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?': YES=29.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a "Search" feature that replaces ChatGPT's default interface before July 1, 2026?': YES=15.35%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go public in 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?': YES=16.14%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=34.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=25.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?': YES=38.69%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI releases a creative writing model by June 1st 2026?': YES=4.30%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=39.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?': YES=89.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=53.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%