markets

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=22.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=48.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?': YES=25.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts': YES=68.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?': YES=51.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=8.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=72.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?': YES=29.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=15.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=25.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?': YES=47.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=7.31%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?': YES=70.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=63.87%

Manifold consensus on 'First OpenAI + io hardware product wearable?': YES=23.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will The New York Times win its copyright infringement suit against OpenAI and Microsoft?': YES=57.92%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI releases a creative writing model by June 1st 2026?': YES=3.02%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI announces an interactive world model by June 1st 2026?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on '🧑‍⚖️ Will The New York Times Win A Lawsuit Against OpenAI & Microsoft?': YES=54.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?': YES=38.69%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?': YES=5.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will MSFT own >3% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=66.51%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=20.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?': YES=98.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=25.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?': YES=61.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=3.97%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=72.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?': YES=18.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?': YES=89.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras for home-activity recording?': YES=25.91%

Manifold consensus on '1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.': YES=6.57%

Manifold consensus on 'third wave of philanthropy seems to be happening within a year of anthropic&openai IPO?': YES=26.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%