markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?': YES=23.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?': YES=9.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?': YES=41.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the pope bless a data center before 2026?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on '5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.': YES=94.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Trump's ballroom project an underground data center?': YES=17.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?': YES=7.70%

Manifold consensus on 'AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? [Polymarket]': YES=5.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?': YES=34.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?': YES=24.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=81.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be >20% semiconductor-specific tariffs lasting over a month by the end of 2025?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 4 USD billion?': YES=56.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 4 USD billion?': YES=66.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=66.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2028 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=56.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2028 exceed 4 USD billion?': YES=66.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=56.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 12 USD billion?': YES=56.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2028 exceed 12 USD billion?': YES=56.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2028 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=56.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 12 USD billion?': YES=56.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=56.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the SMH semiconductor ETF close over $365 on June 20, 2025?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will EU achieve 15% market share in semiconductors before 2030?': YES=12.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?': YES=39.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?': YES=73.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=66.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026': YES=31.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?': YES=86.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?': YES=7.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?': YES=82.43%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2025 (gpu)': YES=64.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?': YES=68.30%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=56.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%