markets

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=8.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=72.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?': YES=29.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=59.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=15.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=23.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Trump declares AGI before the Pope?': YES=75.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=31.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=3.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=16.19%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026': YES=18.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=81.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?': YES=91.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026?': YES=1.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=47.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple's WWDC 2026 keynote include any verbal reference to OpenAI?': YES=25.43%

Manifold consensus on 'First OpenAI + io hardware product wearable?': YES=23.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will The New York Times win its copyright infringement suit against OpenAI and Microsoft?': YES=57.92%

Manifold consensus on '🧑‍⚖️ Will The New York Times Win A Lawsuit Against OpenAI & Microsoft?': YES=54.06%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI releases a creative writing model by June 1st 2026?': YES=3.01%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?': YES=24.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=24.69%

Manifold consensus on 'Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI?': YES=24.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?': YES=16.82%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?': YES=8.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI announces an interactive world model by June 1st 2026?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=1.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%