markets

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=72.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?': YES=29.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=15.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=23.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI be able to qualitatively describe what color is to someone blind from birth?': YES=32.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=3.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=38.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=48.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?': YES=94.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?': YES=28.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI overtake Anthropic in Valuation before 2028': YES=63.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?': YES=30.89%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=77.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=64.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=49.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI change their name before 2030?': YES=23.69%

Manifold consensus on 'Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026': YES=49.56%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=1.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Deepseek V4 outperform OpenAI and Anthropic models at coding?': YES=5.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will LoveFrom + OpenAI ship a consumer product before 2030': YES=60.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI?': YES=20.00%

Manifold consensus on '1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.': YES=26.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=33.16%