markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
- 2026-06-06Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%
NVDAmarket:manifold - 2026-06-06Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=83.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=22.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=53.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jonah Heim win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'US strike on Cuba by December 31?': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-06SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
Polymarket top market 'SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-06Iran leadership change by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by June 30?': YES=4.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6?': YES=83.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?': YES=3.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=77.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?': YES=40.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=56.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Alberta join the US?
Polymarket top market 'Will Alberta join the US?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=40.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?': YES=63.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=18.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-06-06Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?': YES=78.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-06-06Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI': YES=81.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kelsey Plum have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?': YES=1.05%
market:polymarket