markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=73.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by June 30?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alberta join the US?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by June 30?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7?': YES=94.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=19.10%

Polymarket top market 'Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova': YES=64.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=18.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?': YES=95.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.90%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=81.80%

Polymarket top market 'Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=2.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%