markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=73.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=23.50%

Polymarket top market 'Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alberta join the US?': YES=4.30%

Polymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=8.90%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs': YES=94.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=90.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by June 15?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran closes its airspace by June 30?': YES=27.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner': YES=99.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?': YES=22.60%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=2.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=16.20%