markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=23.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=19.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.05%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?': YES=43.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Norway (-1.5)': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'No one announced as next James Bond?': YES=99.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto': YES=56.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?': YES=3.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=45.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=17.50%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones': YES=96.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=4.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance': YES=63.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?': YES=1.50%