markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=1.23%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance': YES=78.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Austin Reaves play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 2?': YES=99.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=9.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=35.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 2?': YES=16.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Milan: Juan Martin vs David Jorda Sanchis': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance': YES=70.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=67.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?': YES=85.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Marie Bouzkova': YES=32.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?': YES=26.25%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?
Polymarket top market 'Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-02Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Austria?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Austria?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=3.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=17.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 2?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will France win on 2026-07-04?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-04?': YES=84.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Christian Anderson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-02Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?
Polymarket top market 'Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?': YES=4.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FaZe vs MIBR (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=34.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Brad Ausmus be the next Red Sox manager?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Declan Rice win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket