markets

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=1.23%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 2?': YES=99.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=35.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Bergs vs. Faria: Match O/U 40.5': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Austria?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 2?': YES=34.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2?': YES=97.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?': YES=85.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=4.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 2?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Gabriel Diallo vs Lorenzo Sonego': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-04?': YES=84.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Austria?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 2?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?': YES=26.25%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 2?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?': YES=17.75%

Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Christian Anderson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs BIG (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?': YES=4.30%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Austria?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5': YES=57.50%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen': YES=99.90%