markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026?': YES=2.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=34.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=27.72%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Nvidia Stock close higher in Feb than Jan': YES=43.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals': YES=35.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=13.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?': YES=95.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Any Other Score?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Washington Nationals vs. Athletics': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Lionel Messi: 3+ goals': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=20.00%