markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Sam Altman (co)found a GPU chip fab company by 2025?': YES=14.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?': YES=82.43%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2025 (gpu)': YES=64.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=56.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=22.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=53.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=64.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China get AGI first?': YES=24.30%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=39.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=6.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=41.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2027?': YES=7.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first AGI be a large language model?': YES=63.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=41.00%

Manifold consensus on 'I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?': YES=16.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=13.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=43.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?': YES=10.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=67.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=76.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=90.26%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?': YES=74.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=98.79%

Manifold consensus on 'What number model will OpenAI be on by EOY?': YES=40.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?': YES=39.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=23.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?': YES=94.53%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%