markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=24.11%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=7.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?': YES=3.10%

Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?': YES=4.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: SAW Youngsters vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #5 Play-In': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Malmo FF win on 2026-07-20?': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20?': YES=72.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=5.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=8.70%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=4.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=7.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=12.10%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=26.00%