markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.65%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%
NVDAmarket:manifold- 2026-07-22Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%
NVDAmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova': YES=51.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 22?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Acosta': YES=66.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 22?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=10.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 22?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'T20 Lanka Premier League: Jaffna Kings vs Colombo Kaps': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?': YES=77.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?': YES=21.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NIP vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group D': YES=48.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=26.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=40.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-22Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Generali Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jurij Rodionov': YES=97.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Trump out as President by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=68.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bukayo Saka win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees
Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees': YES=38.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega': YES=26.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket