markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-23Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #6 Group C
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #6 Group C': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 24?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=44.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods - Map 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=5.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5)': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-23Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=33.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'T20 Series Zimbabwe vs India: Zimbabwe vs India': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5)': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs 3DMAX (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group C
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs 3DMAX (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group C': YES=73.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=86.00%
NVDAmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: T1 vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 23?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty - Game 1 Winner': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=3.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?': YES=59.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-23Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket