markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Nvidia?': YES=38.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=68.19%

Polymarket top market 'ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka': YES=99.00%

Polymarket top market 'Netanyahu out by July 31?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?': YES=97.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=24.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=3.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?': YES=96.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 28?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'ITF M15 Bali 2 Men: Asahi Harazaki vs Hikaru Shiraishi': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: Team to Advance': YES=11.90%

Polymarket top market 'Netanyahu out by end of 2026?': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?': YES=41.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?': YES=87.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=3.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=46.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=0.40%