markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Sam Altman (co)found a GPU chip fab company by 2025?': YES=14.98%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2025 (gpu)': YES=64.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?': YES=82.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=22.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=54.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?': YES=30.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI?': YES=13.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=74.05%

Manifold consensus on 'What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?': YES=21.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=53.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)': YES=71.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?': YES=18.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=16.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Conditional on no AGI, will a human brain be uploaded before 2053?': YES=44.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk?': YES=20.21%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=58.16%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?': YES=43.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?': YES=3.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=2.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=55.78%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI browser in 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Seedance 2.0 Openai sora 3 google veo 4 release date': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?': YES=8.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?': YES=10.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=67.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=76.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=3.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=98.79%

Manifold consensus on 'roon (@tszzl) leaves OpenAI before July 2027?': YES=51.64%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2028?': YES=84.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?': YES=38.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=22.93%