markets

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Nvidia?': YES=38.71%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?': YES=99.70%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=4.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Apóllon Lemesoú win on 2026-07-28?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: ZennIT vs Dynasty - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'ITF Lexington: Anastasia Kulikova vs Thea Frodin': YES=99.10%

Polymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Joblife vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 2.5': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Liquid Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?': YES=10.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun: O/U 4.5': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will EC Juventude win on 2026-07-28?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 28?': YES=99.90%