markets

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=3.30%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season': YES=96.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?': YES=98.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs 2GAME Esports (BO5) - VCL Americas: Last Chance Qualifier Playoffs': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Targu Mures: Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs Mia Ristic': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=89.50%

Polymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?': YES=28.00%