markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-02Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by August 15?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=70.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=40.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=66.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-02Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 31?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 27-August 2?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=20.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=89.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=81.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group': YES=30.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=57.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-02Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 15?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=70.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?': YES=95.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration - Game 1 Winner': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 27-August 2?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs': YES=79.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-02Iran leadership change by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by August 31?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ultra Prime win the LPL 2026 season?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?': YES=96.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket