markets

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=3.30%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=79.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 4?': YES=96.90%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=9.10%

Polymarket top market 'Canadian Open: Terence Atmane vs Jack Draper': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 3?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket top market 'York City FC vs. Crawley Town FC: O/U 3.5': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Janice Tjen vs Liudmila Samsonova': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Tsitsipas': YES=38.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 4?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: James Duckworth vs Christopher O'Connell': YES=88.00%

Polymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 4?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by December 31?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will FK Kudrivka win on 2026-08-03?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on August 4?': YES=99.90%