markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=66.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 6?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Tabilo': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?': YES=83.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will SK Brann win on 2026-08-05?': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.90%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Raphael Collignon vs Alexei Popyrin': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=90.00%

Polymarket top market 'ITF Landisville: Hanna Chang vs Elizabeth Mandlik': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-05?': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?': YES=93.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Arthur Rinderknech': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs': YES=89.80%

Polymarket top market 'Plovdiv 2: Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 6?': YES=99.90%