markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=66.35%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ben Shelton': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by September 30?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Henri Squire': YES=79.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: BoostGate Esports vs SU Esports - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 15?': YES=5.60%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=90.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Viborg FF win on 2026-08-07?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7?': YES=87.50%

Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?': YES=88.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?': YES=41.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Indonesia win on 2026-08-07?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=72.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=76.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=98.00%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Pcific Esports vs REBORN (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?': YES=65.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?': YES=99.30%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: BoostGate Esports vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins': YES=27.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=87.00%