markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.48%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=66.35%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 7?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?': YES=71.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on August 7?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?': YES=4.90%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'ITF Tianjin: Chenting Zhu vs JiaYi Wang': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=87.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri join Real Madrid?': YES=5.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 15?': YES=6.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 7?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=89.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?': YES=3.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri join Barcelona?': YES=88.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?': YES=88.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=73.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?': YES=72.60%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=79.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=90.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-06?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=98.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.10%